The apparent capture of a British soldier in Helmand is another chilling reminder that the fighting in Afghanistan is far from over and that the Taliban - despite the pounding it took over the winter months - is still capable and resilient.
Commanders in the International Security and Assistance Force (Isaf) have repeatedly warned that insurgents would attempt eye-catching spectaculars over the summer months, and so far they've been proved right.
Last week suicide bombers attacked the Intercontinental hotel in Kabul; before that it was a hospital in Logar. Two months ago the Taliban orchestrated an audacious jail break from Kandahar prison. And now we are faced with the possible abduction of a Nato soldier, the first time British troops have been targeted in this way.
The incident comes during a particularly difficult time for the British forces in Afghanistan. Eight British soldiers have died on duty in the past five weeks as the Taliban seeks to reassert itself in areas where it had apparently lost control.
The disappearance of the soldier will also focus attention on security in Helmand and lead to further arguments over whether British and American forces are being pulled out of the country too soon.
This latest episode could not have been timed better from the insurgents' point of view. In just over a fortnight the "transition" process - Nato forces handing over control of parts of the country to the Afghan army and police - is due to begin.
Only the safest districts are to be in the first tranche of transition, and those currently under British control are included in this first wave.
The main British base other than the airfield and compound at Camp Bastion is at Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand. Lashkar Gah is often cited as a British success story due to its security improvements, and is scheduled to be transferred to the Afghan authorities on 21 July.
Adopting the counter-insurgency doctrine that has become synonymous with US General David Petraeus, British commanders have taken a high-profile role in the city, spending time with locals and working with Afghan police and army officers to keep the peace.
But even here there has been trouble. In May the Taliban launched assaults on a number of Afghan checkpoints. One rocket exploded near a police station and killed the daughter of a police commander. The compound of the governner, Gulab Mangal, has also been attacked.
The military would argue that the security situation remains much better, and there is some evidence to back the claim.
Last year in May British troops in Helmand had "contact" with insurgent fighters 160 times in four weeks (15 in the first week of May, 30 in the second, 50 in the third and 65 in the fourth). In May 2011 the total was 96 "contacts" (11, 10, 45, 30). If the established pattern continues, the figures for June are likely to be higher, but they were last year, too.
But military officials know that impressions count and if insurgents appear able to target British troops in this way, local people will question whether they are ready to put their security in the hands of the less experienced Afghans.
The total number of security incidents across the country may not reassure Afghans either, with the number of incidents barely changing year on year, despite the best efforts of the last American surge.
Commanders argue that this lack of improvement was predictable as the Taliban attempted to regain lost influence and territory. They have also said the surge should only be judged after two full years. But this is a luxury they no longer have.
President Obama has ordered all 30,000 extra US soldiers sent to Afghanistan last year back home by autumn 2012. David Cameron, meanwhile, is expected to announce this week that the British will withdraw another 500 troops next year, in addition to the 450 already leaving this year.
Nato countries now have a blueprint to get out of the country and an end goal - by December 2014 they will be in Afghanistan for training and overseeing purposes only, not for fighting.
The entire process is predicated on the belief that Afghanistan will be comparatively stable by then, with the Afghan security forces able to take over security. But that's two very big assumptions in a country where Nato has learned not to assume anything.
No comments:
Post a Comment