Friday 13 April 2012

George Osborne's botched Budget sends Conservative ratings to a new low



The Conservative Party has been hit by a backlash from voters after last month's Budget and is less popular now than at any point since taking office, according to the latest "poll of polls" for The Independent.

It puts the Tories' level of support at its lowest since the 2010 election, while Labour's six-point lead is higher that at any time since February last year.

George Osborne appears to have sparked a decline in Tory fortunes by combining a cut in the 50p top rate of tax with a so-called "granny tax" for pensioners. Senior Tory MPs have protested to David Cameron that the two measures, while justified, should not have been announced in the same package. "The communications around the Budget were dreadful," one said.

The Conservatives may also have angered the public by sparking panic buying at the petrol pumps ahead of threatened strikes by tanker drivers.

"March was very much a month of two halves," said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiles the monthly weighted average of surveys conducted by ComRes, ICM, YouGov and Populus. In their polls before the Budget, Labour averaged 39 per cent and the Tories 37 per cent, but in their most recent surveys, Labour is up to 40 per cent, the Tories down to 34 per cent and the Lib Dems unchanged on 11 per cent.

Overall figures for March show Labour on 40 per cent, the Tories on 36 per cent and the Lib Dems on 11 per cent, enough to give Labour an overall majority of 16 in a general election fought on the proposed new constituency boundaries. Prof Curtice said: "Perhaps most disturbingly for the Tories, there are signs that their and the Government's reputation for competence have taken a knock."

There are signs of a decline in Mr Cameron's personal ratings; in the number of people who believe the Coalition Government is handling the economy well; those who have confidence in Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne and who think the Tories are capable and competent. However, there is little evidence of any advance in Labour's reputation. Ed Miliband is still less highly regarded than Mr Cameron and his standing is only marginally better than a month ago. Voters still think that the Tories can handle the economy better than Labour would.

"Labour's own reputation for general competence continues to lag behind the Tories' – and, in fact, also fell away at the end of the month, perhaps because of the adverse publicity generated by the Bradford West by-election result," said Prof Curtice. There is one positive sign for Mr Miliband: although fewer people blame the Coalition than Labour for the need to make public spending cuts, the proportion blaming the Coalition has crept up to a new record high of 28 per cent. The proportion blaming Labour slipped to a record low of 35 per cent, so the gap is closing.

Prof Curtice concluded: "The end of March witnessed an unwelcome political gale for the Conservatives. For the first time since the formation of the Coalition their competence and ability (as opposed to that of their Lib Dem partners) seems to have been called into question in the minds of the electorate. But perhaps their biggest reason for optimism is that Labour's poll lead still seems to be founded far more on discontent with the Government than any enthusiasm for the party as a potential alternative."

Yesterday Mr Miliband admitted that the Government's failure to bring about change had not translated into a boost for Labour. Insisting that his party was embarking on "real, deep, genuine change" to reconnect with disenchanted voters, he said: "People turning away from an unpopular government doesn't automatically mean they turn to Labour.... It certainly didn't turn out that way in Bradford West two weeks ago. The uncomfortable truth for Labour is that people turned to a protest party rather than to us."

Last night, the Labour leader made an unannounced visit to Bradford to keep his promise to learn from his party's surprise by-election defeat by George Galloway, leader of the Respect Party. "The fourth party who says 'a plague on all your houses' is an issue we've got to confront," said Mr Miliband.

Ten adverts that shocked the world



Advertising is a world in which the normal is beautified, cracks are airbrushed over and real-life is portrayed with rose tinted glasses. And all with the intention of getting the consumers to buy into such ideals.

It is all the more uncomfortable therefore when advertisers seek to shock rather than tantalise, although the effect can be incredible as we have seen today, following the controversy sparked by a French anti-smoking group's poster campaign (right).

We've picked nine other controversial advertising campaigns to test how the shock factor compares.

SAS dead named in landmark decision



Plans to keep the identities of SAS fatalities in Iraq and Afghanistan secret were in tatters last night, following a coroner's landmark decision to allow the naming of two troopers killed in a Puma helicopter crash in Iraq in November 2007.

The Hereford coroner David Halpern revoked an order stopping publication of the soldiers' names. His earlier prohibition order under the Contempt of Court Act set a precedent which imposed a blanket ban on identifying Special Air Service and Special Boat Service casualties.

The Ministry of Defence, acting on behalf of the Director of Special Forces, had sought to impose the restrictions on grounds of national security, the human rights of bereaved families, and aspects of common law. However, the ministry has conceded their position was untenable after lengthy legal consultations.

The development allows Lee Fitzsimmons and John Battersby, the two SAS members who died in the helicopter crash at Salman Pak, to be identified. A third SAS soldier, Nicholas Brown, 34, killed in a fire-fight in Baghdad four months ago, can also be named. Two other SAS members, Major James Stenner and Sergeant Norman Patterson, were killed in Baghdad on New Year's Day 2004 in a car crash.

Simon McKay, a solicitor from the firm McKay Law, acting for Trooper Fitzsimmons' family, said: "They are obviously very, very upset and trying to come to terms with their loss. They have followed the legal case and decided, after the order was lifted, to put their views on record." The Ministry of Defence said it had no comment to make on the matter.

The military has shrouded in secrecy the identities of SAS and SBS personnel. This policy has been particularly prevalent in Iraq, where Special Forces have often been involved in action with American forces outside the British-controlled south.

Trooper Fitzsimmons was 26 when he died. He applied to join the Royal Marines while still at school, gaining entry at the second attempt to join 42 Commando in 1999 aged 17 and transfer to 45 Commando in 2004. He saw active service in Iraq and Afghanistan. Trooper Fitzsimmons's mother, Jacqui Auty, described recent months as "absolute hell". She said: Nobody wants to die at a young age, but Lee wouldn't have shied away from doing his duty."

Identities of the fallen SAS men

Nick Brown

Brown, of 22 SAS, died in a firefight with Shia fighters in Baghdad on 26 March this year fighting alongside US forces which had targeted the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. He was said to have been part of a snatch squad sent to arrest a senior militia commander which ran into an ambush.

Lee Fitzsimmons and John Battersby

Fitzsimmons, 26, and Battersby were killed when their RAF Puma helicopter crashed near the Baghdad suburb of Salman Pak. They had been part of a team which had been investigating reports that insurgents had been collecting material from Salman Pak, a weapons site and laboratory during Saddam Hussein's time. The crash, in which 12 others were injured including two other members of the SAS, was not, it was found, due to enemy fire.

James Stenner and Norman Patterson

Major Stenner, 30, and Sergeant Patterson, 28, originally of the Welsh Guards and the Cheshire Regiment, were killed in a road accident in Baghdad after attending a meeting with American soldiers engaged in hunting members of Saddam Hussein's regime.

North Korean embarrassment as rocket launch fails

The much-anticipated North Korean rocket launch that had threatened to cause a further deterioration in the relationship between the reclusive communist state and its neighbours today ended in failure.

The rocket suffered a catastrophic structural failure about a minute after launch and plummeted into the Yellow Sea.

North Korea announced on state TV that a satellite launched hours earlier had failed to enter orbit.

The US and South Korea also confirmed that the launch was a failure.

The Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite was fired from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Tongchang-ri at 7.38am (11.38pm Thursday BST) but failed to reach orbit, the Korean Central News Agency said.

“Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure,” KCNA said.

The failure to launch the rocket will come as an embarrassment for the communist regime, which was seeking to reinforce the legitimacy of the new leader of North Korea, 28-year-old Kim Jung-on, who took over the role from his father Kim Jong-il, in December.

Whilst North Korea have insisted that the aim of the launch was to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of the founder of the nation Kim Il-sung, by launching a civilian satellite, many claim the launch was to test banned long-range missile technology.

The White House, and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon both condemned the launch, calling it deplorable - despite its failure.

The UN Security Council is set to meet to discuss the launch later, and China have called for calm in the Korean peninsula.

The US, Japan, Britain and other nations had been urging North Korea to cancel a launch.

The foreign ministers of the G8 nations also condemned the launch as they met in Washington.

Greg Thielmann, a former intelligence officer with the US State Department, said it appears the North Koreans have not mastered the technology they need to control multi-stage rockets - a key capability if the North is to threaten the United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Pyongyang is holding a week of events ahead of celebrations to mark Kim Il-sung's birthday on Sunday.

Statues of former leaders Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung were also unveiled at a lavish ceremony in Pyongyang.

TfL bans Christian groups' 'gay cure' advert from London buses



An attempt by evangelical Christians to promote “gay cure” therapies on the sides of London buses was banned last night sparking an angry row over free speech.

The adverts were meant to begin running next week and mimicked a recent campaign by the gay-rights group Stonewall which used the strapline “Some people are gay, get over it!”.

Using a similar font and colours, Christian groups had created rival adverts which read: “Not gay! Ex-gay, post-gay and proud. Get over it!”. Ex-gay and post-gay are terms used by evangelicals to refer to people who, through therapy and prayer, claim to have abandoned their homosexuality.

The adverts were sponsored by Core Issues, a Christian charity which funds “reparative therapy” for gay men and women, and Anglican Mainstream – a socially conservative network that campaigns against greater acceptance of homosexuality within the Church of England.

However when news emerged that the adverts would run, Transport For London banned them arguing that they did not reflect the companies “commitment to a tolerant and inclusive London.” There were reports last night that TfL chiefs acted after London Mayor Boris Johnson personally intervened.

Followinfg the announcement Dr Mike Davidson, Director of Core Issues Trust, accused TfL of censoring their campaign.

"I didn't realise censorship was in place,” he said. “We went through the correct channels and we were encouraged by the bus company to go through their procedures. They okayed it and now it has been pulled."

Padraig Reidy, from Index on Censorship, said that while many might have found the adverts unpleasant, banning them sent out the wrong message.

“There is an increasing rush at the moment by people demanding anything which they find unpleasant should be immediately banned, deleted or removed,” he said. “We’re closing down any trace of controversy or debate within public discourse and that is extremely dangerous.”

The ban will inevitably give Anglican Mainstream and Core Issue’s campaign an immediate publicity drive. Judging the two group’s popular appeal among Christians is difficult. Earlier this year Anglican Mainstream held a conference discussing how to treat gay Christians under the banner: “The lepers among us: Homosexuality and the life of the church”. According to witnesses only 30 people turned up, four of whom were gay activists wanting to hear what was being said.

Nonetheless the groups had enough financial support to run the adverts which would have  appeared on bus routes that go past popular sites such as Trafalgar Square and Piccadilly Circus.

It is the second time Christian groups have turned to London's transport network. Two years ago a coalition of Christian charities placed rival adverts on buses after atheists began a bus campaign that used the strapline: "There is probably no God. Now stop worrying and enjoy life"

The latest adverts come at a time of increasing awareness of the methods used by evangelicals to “cure” gays of their sexuality. Two years ago undercover journalist Patrick Strudwick published in The Independent his experience of spending a year investigating so-called “conversion therapists”, some of whom operated through the NHS.

Before the ban was announced Ben Summerskill, the chief executive of Stonewall, had responded to the adverts by saying: “It’s sad that any self-styled “Christian” group promotes voodoo “gay cure therapy”, which has been discredited by the British Association for Counselling and Psychotherapy, the UK’s leading professional body for counselling psychotherapists. Life would be much easier if these organisations just admitted that they don’t like gay people.”

R-Aintree at Ladies' Day as the downpour drenched the dresses

Thousands of women upped the fashion stakes in the sunshine this morning at a sold-out Grand National Ladies' Day.

But an April shower hit in the afternoon leaving race-goers rather less dapper and more rain-dampened.

Racing almost took a back seat while WAG queen Coleen Rooney led the way as an estimated 50,000 punters attended the second day of the festival at Aintree.

Girls and women from all over the country flocked to the racecourse to parade their glad rags and style sense.

Wayne Rooney's wife, who yesterday backed a 50/1 winner, was decked out in a black and white skater style number with a floral print and black Christian Louboutin heels.

Joanne Sloan, 39, from Southport said she was there to prove that Merseyside girls are not all "trashy" dressers.

She was wearing a corset-fitted jewel top with a bustle at the back in pinks and nude from Tony Brown and a black marabou.

She said: "We have got a bad reputation when it comes to dress sense but I think we can do it all, vintage, classy and glamour."

Others were there to show off their own wares, such as Elaine Kivi, 57, from Birmingham.

She said: "I am here to show off my skills, I make hats. I bought feathers in turquoise, aquamarine, lilac and yellow to make the one I am wearing.

"It is my first time at Ladies' Day at Aintree and so far, so good.

"It is great because everyone just dresses to look their best and the men make an effort too."

Jockeys made their annual visit to Alder Hey Children's Hospital to meet patients and parents this morning.

They were led by 16-time champion jockey AP McCoy.

He said: "I have been coming to Alder Hey for quite a long time, we come here before the National every year.

"Hopefully it takes the kids' minds off things a little bit and makes their day a little bit easier but I think more importantly it creates awareness of how important places like Alder Hey are.

"Most of the lads riding in the National are here and they (the kids) will maybe tell their friends that they met this jockey or that jockey who was riding and maybe be lucky enough to meet one of them that won."

Emma Owen, marketing and public relations manager at Aintree, said the organisers were taking security "very seriously" in the wake of disruption to the Boat Race last weekend.

She said: "Security arrangements here are business as usual, we had the bomb scare here years ago so security is always very high.

"What happened at the Boat Race was unfortunate, but that was a stretch of the River Thames, which is harder to protect."

She added: "We take any information we receive very seriously, whether it affects the safety of horses or jockeys, or members of the public attending the race."

The 150th Grand National in 1997 was postponed and the racecourse evacuated after an IRA bomb threat minutes before the start.

Some 60,000 people had to be moved out of the course.

A field of 2,300 ladies competed to be named the best-dressed woman at Aintree today in the Matalan Style Contest.

Kelly Platt, a 31-year-old quality assurance officer from Woolton, Liverpool, pipped the competition to the post with a vintage black 1950s dress which originally belonged to her grandmother.

She accompanied the outfit with a custom-made hat and black heels from Top Shop.

Speaking after the announcement at the course, which was drenched in rain as the good weather came to a sudden end this afternoon, Ms Platt said: "My nan would be beaming with pride, she passed away but I have seen photographs of her and she was very fashionable, and it is my kind of style.

"Vintage is about uniqueness and wearing something that is not out there on the high street.

"I am still in shock about winning, I did not expect it at all, there were obviously some beautiful outfits here today so I am quite surprised."

Actress Roxanne Pallett was among the panel of judges in the competition.

The former Emmerdale star was wearing a silver AllSaints dress.

Commenting on the trends seen at the festival this year, she said: "Two out of the three finalists were wearing vintage and I think it just shows you don't have to spend a massive amount on designer wear to look good and it is classic as well which is nice.

"It has been a mix of vintage and high street this year.

"I think people are not following trends so much as setting them now, so it is nice to have a real eclectic mix of women, it has been a real pleasure for us to see all this different mix of styles.

"It is not so much about how much you spend but about how rich you look and how you feel."

TfL bans Christian groups' 'gay cure' advert from London buses

An attempt by evangelical Christians to promote “gay cure” therapies on the sides of London buses was banned last night sparking an angry row over free speech.

The adverts were meant to begin running next week and mimicked a recent campaign by the gay-rights group Stonewall which used the strapline “Some people are gay, get over it!”.

Using a similar font and colours, Christian groups had created rival adverts which read: “Not gay! Ex-gay, post-gay and proud. Get over it!”. Ex-gay and post-gay are terms used by evangelicals to refer to people who, through therapy and prayer, claim to have abandoned their homosexuality.

The adverts were sponsored by Core Issues, a Christian charity which funds “reparative therapy” for gay men and women, and Anglican Mainstream – a socially conservative network that campaigns against greater acceptance of homosexuality within the Church of England.

However when news emerged that the adverts would run, Transport For London banned them arguing that they did not reflect the companies “commitment to a tolerant and inclusive London.” There were reports last night that TfL chiefs acted after London Mayor Boris Johnson personally intervened.

Followinfg the announcement Dr Mike Davidson, Director of Core Issues Trust, accused TfL of censoring their campaign.

"I didn't realise censorship was in place,” he said. “We went through the correct channels and we were encouraged by the bus company to go through their procedures. They okayed it and now it has been pulled."

Padraig Reidy, from Index on Censorship, said that while many might have found the adverts unpleasant, banning them sent out the wrong message.

“There is an increasing rush at the moment by people demanding anything which they find unpleasant should be immediately banned, deleted or removed,” he said. “We’re closing down any trace of controversy or debate within public discourse and that is extremely dangerous.”

The ban will inevitably give Anglican Mainstream and Core Issue’s campaign an immediate publicity drive. Judging the two group’s popular appeal among Christians is difficult. Earlier this year Anglican Mainstream held a conference discussing how to treat gay Christians under the banner: “The lepers among us: Homosexuality and the life of the church”. According to witnesses only 30 people turned up, four of whom were gay activists wanting to hear what was being said.

Nonetheless the groups had enough financial support to run the adverts which would have  appeared on bus routes that go past popular sites such as Trafalgar Square and Piccadilly Circus.

It is the second time Christian groups have turned to London's transport network. Two years ago a coalition of Christian charities placed rival adverts on buses after atheists began a bus campaign that used the strapline: "There is probably no God. Now stop worrying and enjoy life"

The latest adverts come at a time of increasing awareness of the methods used by evangelicals to “cure” gays of their sexuality. Two years ago undercover journalist Patrick Strudwick published in The Independent his experience of spending a year investigating so-called “conversion therapists”, some of whom operated through the NHS.

Before the ban was announced Ben Summerskill, the chief executive of Stonewall, had responded to the adverts by saying: “It’s sad that any self-styled “Christian” group promotes voodoo “gay cure therapy”, which has been discredited by the British Association for Counselling and Psychotherapy, the UK’s leading professional body for counselling psychotherapists. Life would be much easier if these organisations just admitted that they don’t like gay people.”

Journey into the heart of North Korea

AFP/Getty Images

On the top floor of the maternity hospital in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, I was shown two sets of triplets lined up in a row of metal cots. "Ahh," I cooed, then asked where the worn- out mothers were. "Oh, they are not necessary," was the reply.

The regime claims it venerates triplets. And they do, but not in a way you or I might celebrate. They send a helicopter to pick up the pregnant mother and take her to hospital for the birth. When triplets are born, the state takes them away. In exchange, parents are given gifts, a ring for girls and a silver knife for boys. They say the state looks after them for the first four years but there's no way of checking that – it could be for ever.

While I was there the hospital was celebrating its 415th set of triplets. They had even drawn up a poster, complete with pictures of triplets in the state orphanage, where the Kim dynasty provides for them. They say it is voluntary, but in a country where you face public execution for making an international phone call, if the state suggests you do something, you do it.

The logic behind this bizarre behaviour is that triplets are expensive so that state eases the parents' burden by looking after them. But remember this is a communist country where the state provides houses for free and feeds every mouth. I asked why the state couldn't ease the burden by providing a larger house and more food, but got no answer.

I asked if the parents can't afford to feed them as babies how would they be able to afford three growing four-year-olds when they are supposed to get them back? Again, no answer. There may be a darker reason behind the state's removal of triplets. Kim Jong-il, whose death in December caused millions in the world's last Stalinist state to weep openly, is reported to have feared an astrologer's prediction that a triplet would assassinate him. The regime tells its people that they live in a paradise, they have nothing to envy and with no access to the outside world they believe it. The disconnect between the state's mass brainwashing and the dysfunctional reality is at its darkest in the maternity hospital, a huge Stalinist concrete block. It smelled, not of disinfectant, but of musty neglect.

All North Koreans are allowed to have their first born in the hospital, a privilege that seemed like a curse. It was a living museum. They gave us a demonstration of a 1960s machine which, our guides told us, could cure infertility. It looked like a bad confidence trick. The hospital's take on patient choice was medieval. Mothers have to give birth alone and aren't allowed to meet with any family or even their husbands for at least a week after. The only contact they have is through little booths with phones like the ones in American prison dramas except the mothers aren't behind glass but on a TV screen. The explanation for this isolation is to prevent infection, yet rubber gloves, disinfectant or hand soap did not seem to be deemed necessary.

In the maternity hospital I saw no disabled children. They told me they are cared for in special homes. Six years ago Dr Ri Kwang-Chol, who defected from the North to the South, claimed that babies that were born with physical defects were put to death and buried. I had no way of verifying that but in five days in Pyongyang and three in the countryside no one in our party of 15 (all students, on a 'fact finding trip') – Britons, Italians and others – saw a disabled person. Where are they? Dr Ri's claim of state infanticide does not seem far-fetched.

The buildings in this city can be divided into three types of architecture: sixties Bond-film villain buildings, Soviet-style housing blocks and buildings that would look at home in Thunderbirds. Individual action does not exist. Everybody moves in blocs. We saw clusters of hundreds of people huddled together raking the mud or on their knees combing scraps of grass. Even visits to the war museum, where residents learn how the "American imperial aggressors" bowed down in front of the Korean people, are arranged by factory.

In regular cities the bulk of the people are on the road, in cars, taxis or on buses. In Pyongyang, it's the pavements that are full of people, who hurry away from you like a shoal of fish from a swimmer. The people of this city are especially selected to live there. Everyone looks the same; the women, with jet-black hair swept back, all share the same hairstyle. They all dress in dark colours and pre-war fabrics. In Pyongyang, no one wears jeans. But there is the odd puncture of colour, the female traffic cops, rumoured to have been chosen by Kim Il-sung himself for their beauty, stand out in the their blue coats, painted faces and knee-high boots flashing a rare sight of leg.

The guides are confident they live the good life. "Petrol stations, we have tens of them. We even have four supermarkets," bragged the guide. "Not bad for a city of three million," I replied.

At night it is not just dark but pitch black. You can't see more than a foot in front. I had hoped this would mean – with a sky free of light pollution – amazing views of skies full of stars, but there were hardly any. It was as if even the stars wanted to escape.

In this country everything is done by hand. One group of workers I saw were bent over the ground, one had a spade, the rest dug the soil with their fingers. When they watered a municipal garden, they didn't use a hose-pipe. Instead, hundreds of people would walk back and forth from a tap, filling up their water bottles to sprinkle the ground.

One day on an empty motorway our bus suddenly started to slow down. Ahead were more than 2,000 people, mainly women, squatting in the middle of the road. The driver sped up, anxious for me not to see as the women desperately tried to run out of the way. They had been sweeping dust from the road with brushes made from twigs.

We were taken to the People's Study House – the national library– a giant marble tomb of a place. (Nothing is small in North Korea apart from the people, who are on average three inches shorter than their cousins in the South.) The library boasted a colossal mosaic of Kim against a sunset. Glass chandeliers hung from the ceiling with the class of Pat Butcher's earrings. The library boasted a philosopher, there to answer questions on the regime's dogma, Kim Il-sungism.

I used the library's off-line computer to search the 30 million-book catalogue for titles on Gandhi, World War Two, Hitler, Stalin, Mao and the Holocaust. Nothing. The top three results were: a book on upholstery, another on low temperatures and an article entitled, "Gender Effects Renal Vasoconstrictor Response". The contradiction between our guides' pride in the library and its pitiful content made me cry.

Next was a room with rows of individual desks lined up with 1980s-style boom boxes. People come here to listen to world music. They had already preselected some they thought I would want to hear. As Madonna's "American Pie" played, my eyes welled up again as it was the first music I had heard in days. But when I walked around the room I noticed that none of the other machines was plugged in, nor could they be. There were no sockets – it was all just for show.

As you drive out of town into the countryside the cars thin and the bicycles get more laden. The first old lady I had seen in days was walking up a hill, a six-seater table strapped to her back. The road stretched out ahead, with nothing but brown dry fields on either side. Aside from people you can count almost anything you see in North Korea on your hands. Goats: seven; cows: three; dogs: two, with ribs exposed; jet-black squirrel: one.

In the fields I saw little piles of dark-looking soil. I learned it was human faeces – fertiliser is expensive, out of reach.

On the 100th day of mourning for Kim Jong-il I was whisked out of the city – away from the masses offering paper flowers to the statues and portraits – and taken to the Demilitarised Zone, the most militarised front line in the world.

The DMZ is covered in trees, a hint of what the the country looked like before forests were cleared for firewood or boiled bark soup during the famine of the 1990s. The soldiers boasted of the bravery of Kim Il-sung, the first of the Kim dynasty, who had stood here just feet away from the enemy. They claimed no other enemy leader had dared to visit the South Korean side, this on the day that President Obama was doing just that.

The view south, from the North's chilly un-lit building, was of a bigger, shinier, more advanced South. The North's soldiers looked like Dad's Army with old kit; the South's dressed like Robocops.

I was shown into a little hut that straddles the demarcation line. Standing outside were two North Korean soldiers, in dark brown uniforms, six feet apart, facing each other. When asked why they were staring at each other, their officer told me: "It is our rule, it's for security purposes." But why would they be facing each other instead of the enemy? "Military strategy." When questioned again about such a curious strategy, they conceded it was to prevent defection.

When I pointed out the country's nuclear weapons couldn't hit America – prior to the rocket apparently failing last night – the military commanders giggled, "Yes they can, you will see." We laughed back, nervously. But with even its ally China saying that the rocket had fallen into the sea, it appears the joke may be on North Korea.

So long, Bin Laden: new entry at No 1 for America's most-wanted list



Eric Toth, aka David Bussone, a fugitive child pornographer, may not have the slaughter of 3,000 people on his criminal CV. But he has just been accorded a singular accolade by US law enforcement authorities as the replacement for Osama bin Laden on the Federal Bureau of Investigation's 10 Most Wanted List.

Days after the head of al-Qa'ida and the organiser of the 9/11 attacks was hunted down and killed in Pakistan last May, the FBI asked its field offices across the country for suggestions for someone to take his place. The choice has now been made. And it's not another terrorist or suspected serial killer, but a former private school teacher in Washington who has been on the run since being arrested in 2008 after pornographic images of young children were found on his camera. The last confirmed trace of Mr Roth was his car, found abandoned at Minneapolis airport.

The agency is now offering a reward of $100,000 for information leading to his arrest, a fraction of the $25m (£16m) bounty on bin Laden's head. "There's no comparison to be made between Toth and bin Laden," FBI Supervisory Special Agent Jacqueline Maguire said. "Although Eric Toth has not murdered anyone and he's not an international terrorist, that does not mean he isn't dangerous."

His selection is also a sign of America's changing criminal times. Of the 10 names on the list, six are accused of murder. But, increasingly, the FBI's attention is turning to internet crime.

Mr Toth is believed to have been in at least half a dozen US states since taking flight. "He may be anywhere in the country," another FBI official added. "He could be in a homeless shelter." The Most Wanted list, which took its present form in 1950, is part of American crimefighting lore. Its direct ancestor is the register of "public enemies" issued by the FBI's first Director, J Edgar Hoover, in his war on Depression-era gangsters. But the format can be traced back to the posters of outlaws from the Old West. Indeed, days after 9/11, the then President, George W Bush, was declaring that he wanted Osama "dead or alive".

The device is more than a publicity gimmick. It works. Since 1950, 495 people have featured on the list and 465 have been captured – the most recent being the fugitive Boston gangster, James "Whitey" Bulger, who was arrested in Los Angeles last June.

Bin Laden may have been found as a result of intelligence work and electronic intercepts in a foreign country, but 153 of those named have been caught following a tip-off from the public.

Some things, though, have changed over the years. FBI wanted posters used to be displayed in post offices and other public places. In this electronic age, television and the social networks are the most fruitful means of dissemination. However, many of the principles underlying the list are the same.

America was, and is, a huge place where news is mostly local, and in which it is relatively easy to disappear or assume a new identity. The national exposure of fugitives, complete with several pictures, can jog memories, particularly if he or she has distinguishing features. In Mr Toth's case, these are a lanky frame and a mole under his left eye.

"He's the type of person that, I hope, with a little help from being on the Top 10 list, will lead to individuals calling in, saying 'that guy works in a day care centre, or is a teaching assistant, or works down the street'," an FBI spokesman, Kevin Perkins, said.

Murderers, gang leaders and fraudsters: The FBI's top ten

1. Eric Justin Toth

Topping the FBI's list of most-wanted criminals is a 30-year-old former private school teacher, who despite his all-American appearance is wanted for allegedly possessing and producing child pornography.

2. Jason Derek Brown

Painted by the FBI as an attention-seeker with an appetite for the high life, Brown is wanted for the 2004 robbery and murder of an armoured car guard in Arizona. An International Business graduate, Brown – whose hobbies include golf and skiing – is said to flaunt his ill-gotten wealth in nightclubs.

3. Joe Luis Saenz

This alleged member of a Mexican drug cartel is a suspect in four killings stretching back to 1998, including two gang-related shootings and the kidnap, rape and murder of his girlfriend.

4. Glen Stewart Godwin

Using aliases including Miguel Carrera and Dennis McWilliams, this Miami-born 53-year-old has been on the run since 1991, when he escaped from a Mexican prison after allegedly murdering a fellow inmate. It was his second jail break, after escaping California's infamous Folsom Prison in 1987, where he was serving time for murder. He is now believed to be in the drugs trade.

5. Robert William Fisher

He tried to paint a picture of the perfect family man, but this one-time firefighter and avid hunter apparently snapped one day in 2001, allegedly shooting his wife and slitting the throats of his two young children before blowing up their Arizona home. The FBI has named Fisher as the only suspect.

6. Semion Mogilevich

This Ukrainian businessman is accused of defrauding thousands of people in a multi-million-dollar investment swindle. He was indicted in 2003, and is believed to live in Moscow on his Russian passport.

7. Eduardo Ravelo

In a bid to evade capture, this alleged hitman for a Mexican crime syndicate is said to have had plastic surgery and altered his fingerprints. Ravelo, also known as "2x4", is wanted on racketeering and drug possession charges.

8. Alexis Flores

In 2000, a five-year-old girl was found strangled in a Philadelphia flat. This Honduras-born handyman is wanted in connection with the killing.

9. Victor Manuel Gerena

Gerena, 53, has been on the run since 1983, when he allegedly took part in the armed robbery of a Connecticut security company. Two security guards were held hostage in a $7m raid. Gerena has been on the most-wanted list since 1984.

10. James J Bulger

"Whitey'"Bulger remains on the FBI's list, but with the word "Captured" emblazoned over his mugshot. An infamous Boston mob boss wanted for murders in the 1970s and 1980s, he was tracked down to Los Angeles and arrested with much fanfare last year.

Wednesday 11 April 2012

Who, What, Why: Who gets on the FBI's 'top 10' list?

The FBI has replaced Osama Bin Laden with an accused child pornographer on its Ten Most Wanted list of fugitives. How does America's most prominent federal law enforcement bureau choose who is featured on the list?

Bin Laden was one of the world's most wanted terrorists before his death in a May US special forces raid in Pakistan. Eric Justin Toth, 30, is not accused of killing anyone, but of producing child pornography.

The former school teacher and camp counsellor has been on the run since 2008, when he was indicted on federal charges in the state of Maryland after child pornography was found on a camera he had used at a school, officials say.

The FBI has followed him through Illinois, Indiana and out west to Arizona, but the trail ran cold.

So on Tuesday, the bureau added Mr Toth to its Ten Most Wanted list, replacing the slain terrorist.

"We have always counted on the public's support to help capture fugitives and solve cases," Mike Kortan, a bureau spokesman, said in a statement.
"The addition of Eric Toth to the Top Ten list illustrates how important it is to get this individual off the streets and into custody."

The FBI first drew up a Ten Most Wanted list in 1950 when a reporter asked the bureau for the names and descriptions of the "toughest guys" on the run.

Since then, the list has proven a remarkably successful publicity programme, FBI officials say.

Of 495 men and women on the list since then, 465 have been captured or located. Of those, 153 were nabbed after a tip from the public, the FBI says.

The ten individuals on the list are not ranked.

Continue reading the main story
WHO, WHAT, WHY?


A part of BBC News Magazine, Who, What, Why? aims to answer questions behind the headlines

Who gets on the FBI's 'top 10' list?

To be included on the list, a fugitive must have a federal warrant for his or her arrest and must be a real menace to society - someone with the capacity to do continued harm if he or she remains on the run. He or she must also be bad enough to warrant a $100,000 (£62,900) reward.

The case agents searching for the fugitive will have exhausted other leads and believe the publicity will help find him or her. (In cases that don't make the list, agents may feel they are closing in on the bad guy and the publicity will drive him further underground.)

The FBI adds fugitives to the list by canvassing its field offices for suggestions, analysing the most worthy cases, then forwarding those up the bureau's chain of command until they receive final approval from Director Robert Mueller.

Continue reading the main story
Who else is on the list?

Jason Derek Brown: Accused of killing an armoured car guard during a robbery in Arizona
Joe Luis Saenz: Accused of killing two rival Los Angeles gangsters, raping and murdering his girlfriend, and killing a fourth person
Glen Stewart Godwin: Murdered a fellow inmate in a Mexican prison, then escaped
Robert William Fisher: Accused of killing his wife and children
Semion Mogilevich: Wanted for allegedly defrauding investors in a stock scam
Eduardo Ravelo: Accused member of a drug gang
Alexis Flores: Accused of kidnapping and murdering a five-year-old girl
Victor Manuel Gerena: Sought in connection with the robbery of $7m from a security company
James "Whitey" Bulger: Accused Boston gangster and murder; captured in June
FBI Ten Most Wanted
"Over time, the top 10 list has in some ways mirrored the criminal investigative interests of the bureau and the priorities of the day," says John Fox, the bureau's official historian.

In the 1960s and 1970s, violent anti-Vietnam War radicals like Bernardine Dohrn, Katherine Power, and Leo Burt featured on the list, for example.

In the 1990s, international terrorists made the list, and since 2000, several alleged child pornographers and paedophiles have been listed.

"Of course, it doesn't capture all of what the FBI's priorities are," Mr Fox says.

"Counter-intelligence is not an investigative matter that is well suited to the Top Ten Most Wanted list."

Fugitives are removed from the list when they are captured, die (or are killed) or are removed because they are no longer considered a menace to society.

Over the years, six fugitives fell into that category; several of those were anti-Vietnam War activists accused of violent acts who evaded the law until they reached middle age.

The bureaucratic process of adding a new fugitive to the list can be lengthy.

The FBI took 11 months to replace Bin Laden. As of Wednesday, Bulger was still on the list, though he was captured in June.

Reporting by Daniel Nasaw in Washington